If you’ve survived this long, congrats. Gotta be in it to win it in fantasy and making the quarter finals of the playoffs is a feat in itself. But now you’re only a few imaginary points scored from a bunch of guys playing a kid’s game separating you from your homemade trophy from someone else in a bunch of guys you went to high school with.1 Here’s my ideas on how to make it this week:
Start Jacob Tamme and not check your lineup beforehand for a start/sit update and eat the point and half he gives you like I did2
There’s the cliche/time-tested/eff-everybody-who-says-this tale to start your studs. Now, let’s take a sec and examine that: Stud isn’t someone you drafted high and just “hasn’t caught a break yet.” A stud is someone who is top at their position all season and every game they bring points home and have a chance to carry your team on their back.3 This includes the top 7-10 of QBs, the top 10-15 of RBs, and top 15-20 of WRs.
But Kevin, these are totally arbitrary numbers you say. You’re right. My only point from all this is start the people who produce, not who you want to produce. See Jacob Tamme above.4
The old tale is meant to make sure when you have to pick between one of your tried-and-true fairly match-up proof players or a lower-tier player with a better match-up or a small hot streak, you should lean with the veteran.
This becomes much cloudier once you start having to choose between two very similar options in turns of consistent output history but different match ups. Then of course you play the match up.
The moral of the story is this: start the people not only you like this week but have liked and proven you right all year. That last bit is important, because if you definite stud differently and start someone vastly too volatile, then that’s for you and your team to deal with.
Applying this logic, let’s look at an interesting start/sit I’m sure many people are thinking of:
Jay Cutler – coming off an ankle injury and making the best QB on the team play second fiddle to him, he was producing before he went down, but will he go down again? He’d be a must start if the numbers McCown put up were his and he weren’t hurt. Therefore, he isn’t a stud, but a high ceiling-high risk start. Anyone else above him the ECR ranks from FantasyPros are more worthy of a start. I’d start him only over players who have no legitimate chance at breaking 15 easy.
Good luck out there applying your own crazy logic to your team. I know mine failed me this week.5