Ah that time of year where presents are exchanged, trophies are won, and expletives flow like egg nog. Some of you woke up this Monday as champs, if you did, congrats. Many factors can lead to a victory, most of all a good draft, good eye on the wire, and tying it all together, luck.
Virtually no one wins a fantasy season without drafting moderately well and/or being really good on the wire. Most all, don’t be afraid to take some chances on the two. This is important to remember for next year. Many players sulk from a bum draft pick or two, a great player they missed or dropped to the wire, and/or their injury situation. Fact is, you can draft as well as you want and have as good of an eye as you want, but luck and chance is the name of the game in fantasy. Let’s analyze the bulldozer of my league, my girlfriend’s fantasy team:
RBs: McCoy and Reggie Bush (MJD acquired for Decker), and DeAngelo
WRs: Demarius and Antonio Brown
TEs: Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker
Obviously, the Broncos turning into the greatest passing offense basically ever seen bouyed her immensely. But picking Peyton was obviously a risky move, and it worked for her. Who knew at the start of the year he would average over 25 points a game. McCoy was another question mark- Kelly’s offense was never tested when the draft came around. Bush was, and remains, injury prone, but a PPR beast when on the field. Brown stepped up to be a great WR, but that was far from a given at the start of the year. Walker turned out to be a beast for her in both the TE slot when Vernon was on Bye and in the Flex. The Seahawks were probably the only spot that offered her little risk, but still substantial reward.
Long story short: she (probably unwittingly) took some big chances with this team. But all her chances worked. She could’ve picked Lynch and his consistent production or McCoy and his possibility of going bananas in a new offense. Can I say this is the safest route? No. But did taking chances reap her great rewards? Hell. Yes.
Remember this for next year redrafters: you only have one chance at the Shiva. Draft smart (i.e. don’t pick kickers prior to the last round), but remember to take gambles on huge upside players if the opportunity presents itself (player falls far down, or is a small reach). If you don’t take chances but draft safe, expect a middle of the pack finish. Sure there’s a chance you a pull a me and draft Martin and Finley, but I also stole DeSean and Lacy later on, so take the chances and then let luck take over. It sucks, but fantasy is not a science; it’s more like craps. You can bet the good odds, but they’re still odds.
Go for the win at the draft next year; don’t fear failure, embrace the excitement for a chance to win it all.